TL;DR
Prime made for students and young adults
- Fast, free delivery for dorm and study essentials
- Prime Video and Amazon Music included
- Member-only deals
Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post covering local meetup updates, a Boston-area election guide, an AI grantmaking survey and projects related to prediction markets and community notes. The post also gives an early notice for a Bay Area meetup and invites readers to participate in the survey; it does not report a single major breaking event.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly community post, with updates on local meetups, a Boston-area general election guide, research on AI grantmaking and new AI-related projects. The post is a collection of announcements and invitations rather than a report of one central news event, and it asks readers to join discussions, attend gatherings and complete a survey.
The post says meetup arrangements have changed in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, directing readers to the original post for location-specific details. It also gives an early notice for a Bay Area ACX meetup planned for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco.
The Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general election voting guide, according to the post’s author. The author says additional guides may follow and that work on a Bay Area guide is still under consideration. The post also reminds readers that the San Francisco mail-in ballot registration deadline is the end of that Monday and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement.
On AI grantmaking, the author says they are continuing work on modeling, and possibly automating, parts of the process. They ask people familiar with AI and grantmaking to rate the value of about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first, which the post says may help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights.
How the Thread Mobilizes Readers
The announcements connect readers to several forms of participation: local meetups, civic information, research data collection and new online tools. For readers in the named cities, the meetup changes may affect where or how they can attend. In the Bay Area, the post combines an event notice with a time-sensitive reminder about San Francisco ballot registration.
The survey is also part of an ongoing effort to formalize judgments about AI safety work. Its answers are intended to inform the author’s modeling of grantmaking priorities, though the post does not report results or claim that the model is ready to guide funding decisions. The paired survey design is presented as a way to separate differences in values from variation in individual responses.
The thread also points readers toward two projects with broader potential reach: MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI, and Common Notes, a proposed system for adding community notes across websites. Both are described in the post as projects readers can explore, not as independently evaluated services.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
A Weekly ACX Community Roundup
Astral Codex Ten describes the post as its weekly visible open thread, intended for readers to discuss any subject or ask casual questions. The site points to an unofficial subreddit, Discord server, bulletin board and in-person meetups as ways for its community to interact. The thread’s multiple short notices reflect that format: it combines local logistics with updates on projects and requests for reader involvement.
The post also places the AI grantmaking survey within work the author says has been discussed in previous efforts. It does not link the survey request to a published evaluation or say that grant decisions have been automated. Separately, it describes Stephen Grugett, identified as a grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder, as announcing MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI. The thread says the market allows trading on futures representing AI company stocks, company revenues and targets tied to the Epoch Capabilities Index.
Goodheart Labs is described as developing Common Notes, a system the post characterizes as “Twitter Community Notes, but for everything.” According to the thread, the project combines AI-written notes, user contributions and votes, with a browser extension intended to display notes across sites. These descriptions come from the post; it does not provide performance results or independent testing.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten post
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Survey and Project Details Still Open
The post does not provide the survey’s eventual findings, explain how responses will be weighted, or specify whether the grantmaking model will influence actual funding decisions. It also does not state when the survey will close or how many responses are sought.
For the election guide, the author says a Bay Area version is still being explored, and the post does not give a publication date for any additional guides. Readers are directed to the original post for details of the changes to individual meetups; the thread’s summary alone does not specify each revised venue or schedule.
The descriptions of MNX and Common Notes are brief announcements. The post does not provide further detail on MNX’s terms, market availability or regulatory arrangements, nor does it report independent assessments of the accuracy, moderation or reach of Common Notes. It also does not explain the basis for its comparison between prices on MNX and Polymarket for the cited Anthropic valuation.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Upcoming Meetups and Survey Participation
Readers interested in the AI grantmaking work can complete the main survey and, if they have time, the alternate version asking them to predict the author’s answers. The post says the second version would provide additional data for separating worldview differences from random response noise.
The next listed local event is the Bay Area meetup scheduled for October 24 at 1 p.m. in San Francisco. The author says a separate post may follow. Readers should consult the original thread for current meetup arrangements and the election-guide updates, especially because the ballot-registration reminder is tied to a specific Monday deadline.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is a weekly community post from Astral Codex Ten that invites general discussion and shares notices about meetups, projects and reader requests.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
The main survey asks knowledgeable respondents to assign value to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate version asks people to predict how the author would answer the first survey.
What meetup is scheduled next?
The post lists a Bay Area ACX meetup for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. The post says a separate notice may follow.
What are MNX and Common Notes?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI-related stocks, revenues and capability targets. It describes Common Notes as a Goodheart Labs project combining AI-generated notes, user contributions and votes across websites through a browser extension.
Source: rss
Halloween Picks
halloween
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
